The Qatar Lennox Stakes is a Group 2 race over 7f at 3.00 at Goodwood on Tuesday, July 31st. Here we take a look at the main contenders and reveal the best bet.
Tip Two Win
Like so many of his father Dark Angel’s progeny, Tip Two Win is a thoroughly admirable sort. The nine times raced three year old colt always runs his race and will be many peoples idea of the winner of this years Qatar Lennox Stakes.
Twice successful in five races as a two year old, the grey then went to Doha over the winter where he recorded two facile wins and earned over 150k sterling in prize money. He was next seen finishing an impressive second to Saxon Warrior in the Newmarket 2000 Guineas over a mile. On that occasion he had Derby winner Masar and Eclipse winner Roaring Lion behind.
He followed this up with perhaps a slightly disappointing, though still solid, fourth to Without Parole in the Group 1 St James Palace Stakes over Ascot’s round mile.
However, the overall form of this years classics is open to question in my opinion. Roaring Lion and Saxon Warrior did fight out the finish of the all-aged Eclipse, but third placed Cliffs of Moher and fourth placed Hawkbill were beaten much easier by older horses at Royal Ascot. Guineas fourth Alarqam was beaten by two handicappers at York on Saturday last, while Epsom Derby third Dee Ex Bee has twice since been well beaten. Also, the Epsom Derby fifth, Hazapour, was only a tame third of four when stuffed at odds on in a Group 3 at Leopardstown recently.
Tip Two Win is sure to go well here and will not be inconvenienced by the drop back to seven furlongs, but this Qatar Lennox Stakes is a tight race and I think he is beatable.
The David Elsworth trained four year old Sir Dancealot is highly progressive and has shown improved form since being gelded at the end of his three year old career.
His last run in particular, when fourth to U S Navy Flag in the Group 1 July Cup over six furlongs at Newmarket, was very solid. Prior to that he was a ready winner, again at Newmarket, this time over seven furlongs in the Group 3 Criterion Stakes. The second and third that day have since gone on the finish first and second in a recent Group 2 at the Curragh.
He does seem to especially like Newmarket though and disappointed on his sole start at this track when favourite for last years Stewards Cup. He will be a big danger to all here but I am going to look elsewhere for the winner of this years Qatar Lennox Stakes.
Breton Rock came with an incredible late burst to get up on the line and win last years Qatar Lennox Stakes.
He clearly loves the unique demands of this tight turning and undulating switchback course and his trainer, David Simcock, loves nothing more than a winner at the Sussex venue. Breton Rock will have been aimed specifically at this race and has his chance, but I feel the repeat win will be beyond him this year.
Suedois is my idea of the winner of this years Qatar Lennox Stakes.
This ex-French but now David O Meara trained son of Le Havre has amassed almost 700k sterling in prize money in his thirty six race career. He has eight wins to his name and has been placed a remarkable twenty four times for a place strike rate of over 70%. This is an incredible statistic when you consider that seventeen of his last nineteen races have been at Group 2 level or higher.
He has been second in a Group 1 July Cup over six furlongs on fast ground, third in a Group 1 Haydock Park Sprint Cup over six furlongs on soft ground, third in a Group 1 Prix de la Foret over seven furlongs on good ground, fourth in a Breeders Cup Mile on firm ground and first in a Grade 1 Shadwell Mile. He was also a close third in this race last year.
He might now be a seven year old, but with David O Meara currently operating at a 23% win strike rate, Suedois is sure to go well. I would prefer if he had a better draw than the 8 stall and for sure this is a tight race on a track where essentially anything can happen, but he is my idea of the winner of this years Qatar Lennox Stakes.
Qatar Lennox Stakes Verdict:
In a tight race, the selection is Suedois each way @ 13/2 with Paddy Power.